Clarksons Securities makes bold predictions for tanker rates in 2023 and beyond
The Clarksons Securities shipping team has made a bold prediction of further increases in tanker rates during 2023.
Analysts Frode Morkedal and Even Kolsgaard claim we will see ‘phoenix’-like VLCCs in the coming year as demand increases and the fleet works at full tilt. They predict a rise to $25,000 per day by Q3-23 with a further increase to $42,000 per day in the final three months of the year. Clarksons Securities predicts this upward trend for crude and product carriers will continue well into 2024 with forecasted prices of $61,000 per day.
The investment bank commented:
“As a result of a record-low orderbook and slow steaming due to new carbon limits, crude tanker fleet growth is stagnating and going negative in real terms.”
“We don’t see any hidden fleet capacity in the tanker sector to spoil the party.”
Clarksons Securities predicts product tankers will experience a similar upward trend. The sector has already enjoyed an exceptional H1-22, with the first 3 months of the year seeing an average daily rate of $12,000 for a 10-year-old MR vessel without a scrubber. As we move into H2-22, this figure now stands at $50,000 per day.
Morkedal and Kolsgaard said:
“Product tonne-miles have increased dramatically as Europe transitions away from Russian oil and could hit 14% growth by the end of the year.”
They also noted that we have not yet seen the full effect of current restrictions on Russian oil imports, adding:
“This process is not complete because the official restriction on Russian oil imports does not take effect until the end of 2022.”